BASIC INFORMATION

Full Country Name:�Republic of Tajikistan


Country Profile:

Area: 143,100 sq km
Population: 7 million (UN, 2004)
Capital City: Dushanbe (population: 0.7 million)
People: Tajiks 80%, Uzbeks 15%, Russians 1% and Others 4%.
Religion(s): Sunni Muslim 85%, Ismaili Shiites 5%, some Russian Orthodox Christians and Jews.
Languages: Tajik and Russian
Currency: Somoni
Government: Republic
Registered political parties: People's Democratic Party of Tajikistan, Islamic Revivalbirth Party, Communist Party, Democratic Party, Socialist Party, Social Democratic Party, Agrarian Party, Party of Economic Reforms.
Head of State: President Imomali Rahmon (PDP)
Prime Minister/Premier: Akil Akilov
Foreign Minister: Khamrohon Zarifi
Membership of international organisations: OSCE, UN, NATO Partnership for Peace, IMF, World Bank, ADB, IBRD, IDB and EBRD.
Membership of regional organisations: CIS Customs Union, CSTO, Shanghai Co-operation Organisation, EAEC.

GEOGRAPHY

is bordered by to the West,, to the South, to the East and to the North. The country is largely(93%) mountainous, with around half its territory lying above 3,000 metres. The highest peak in the former Soviet Union, Peak Somoni (formerly Peak Communism – 7,500 metres) is found in the Tajik Pamir mountains. The climate is extreme continental with hot dry summers in the plains, where temperatures can exceed 40 degrees, while winter temperatures on the Pamir plateau can drop to –40. has an abundant supply of water with the main rivers being the Syr Darya and the Amu Darya (also known as the Pyanj). The bulk of the population lives in the flatter, agricultural areas – the Ferghana Valley to the North, the Gissar and Vakhsh Valleys closer to the capital, and the Khatlon region to the South.

HISTORY

Recent History

gained independence from the Soviet Union in September 1991. Conflict was avoided in the immediate struggle for power, but tensions quickly escalated, and by the end of 1992, civil war had broken out.

The civil war in 1992-1997 between the government of President Rahmon and the United Tajik Opposition (UTO) left around 50,000 dead, over 10% of the population (of then approximately 5.7m) displaced and caused $7 billion in damages. UN-mediated talks led to a cease-fire in October 1994, and on 27 June 1997 both sides signed the General Agreement on Peace and National Accord in Moscow. The accord created a National Commission for Reconciliation (CNR) to bring together government and UTO figures. As a result, the Islamic Revival Party received a number of ministerial positions. A Russian-led and dominated peacekeeping force was stationed inside .

A 30-strong United Nations Mission of Observers in (UNMOT - established by UNSCR 968 of 16 December 1994) assisted with implementing the cease-fire agreement. Its mandate expired in May 2000. A United Nations Peace-building Support Office (UNTOP) succeeded it but is due to close in summer 2007, a decade after the signing of the peace agreement.

The implementation of the peace accord was, for a time, threatened by warlords fighting to keep control of parts of the country. In November 1998 troops loyal to the renegade commander, Mahmud Khudoberdiyev (an ethnic Uzbek), mounted an armed incursion into northern . They were repelled after some fighting, but this was a worrying sign of the disenfranchisement felt by the northerners (principally Uzbeks). In 1999 and 2000, armed Islamic rebels opposed to the Government of Uzbekistan used to mount armed incursions into and . There were several political murders in 2001, but since 2002 levels of violence have decreased substantially. Despite the fact that the IRP and other UTO forces retain very few positions in government, the political and security situation is now stable.

Longer Historical Perspective

Much, if not all, of what is today Tajikistan was part of ancient Persia's Achaemenid Empire (sixth to fourth centuries BC), which was subdued by Alexander the Great in the fourth century BC The northern part of what is now Tajikistan was part of Soghdiana, a distinct region that intermittently existed as a combination of separate oasis states and sometimes was subject to other states. As intermediaries on the Silk Route between and markets to the west and south, the Soghdians imported religions such as Buddhism, Nestorian Christianity, Zoroastrianism, and Manichaeism, as well as their own alphabet.

Islamic Arabs began the conquest of the region in earnest in the early eighth century. Conversion to Islam occurred by means of incentives, gradual acceptance, and force of arms. Islam spread most rapidly in cities and along the main river valleys. By the ninth century, it was the prevalent religion in the entire region.

In the development of a modern Tajik national identity, the most important state in Central Asia after the Islamic conquest was the Persian-speaking Samanid principality (875-999), which came to rule most of what is now , as well as territory to the south and west. During their reign, the Samanids supported the revival of the written Persian language.

Beginning in the ninth century, Turkish penetration of the Persian cultural sphere increased in Central Asia. The influx of even greater numbers of Turkic peoples began in the eleventh century. The Turkic peoples who moved into southern Central Asia, including what later became , were influenced to varying degrees by Persian culture. During subsequent centuries, the lands that eventually became were part of Turkic or Mongol states. The Persian language remained in use in government, scholarship, and literature. Among the dynasties that ruled all or part of the future between the eleventh and fifteenth centuries were the Seljuk Turks and the Mongols. In the early sixteenth century, Uzbeks conquered but the Uzbek state began to break apart soon after the conquest. By the early nineteenth century, the lands of the future were divided among three states: the Uzbek-ruled Bukhara Khanate, the Kokand Khanate, centered on the Fergana Valley, and the kingdom of Afghanistan. These three principalities subsequently fought each other for control of key areas of the new territory.

was created in 1924 as an autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic (ASSR) within the Uzbekistan SSR. The new autonomous republic included what had been eastern Bukhara and had a population of about 740,000, out of a total population of nearly 5 million in as a whole. Its capital was established in Dushanbe, a mere village of 3,000 in 1920. In 1929 was detached from and given full status as a Soviet socialist republic. The territory that is now northern (Soghd) was added to the new republic. In many respects, was one of the least developed of the Soviet Republics, and has suffered particularly severely from the collapse of the previously unified Soviet economy.

POLITICS

Recent Political Developments

Presidential elections in November 2006 resulted in a landslide victory of 79% for the incumbent, President Rahmon, who has effectively been in power since 1992. As a result of a constitutional referendum in 2003, Rahmon could run for a further term of office, potentially allowing him to remain President until 2020. The last Parliamentary elections, which were held in February 2005, resulted in an overwhelming majority for the President's party, the People's Democratic Party (PDP). The OSCE concluded that neither Presidential nor Parliamentary elections had been fully in accordance with international standards. Although there appeared to be a choice of candidates and parties in both elections, and most voting procedures were in accordance with OSCE norms, the genuineness of some of the "opposition" candidates has been called into question, as has the reliability of the vote counting procedures. The main, genuine opposition party, the Islamic Revival Party decided not to field a candidate for President on the grounds that they needed to consolidate their party following the recent death of their leader, Nuri, and have only partially competed in recent by-elections, complaining that they did not believe the elections would be transparent and fair.

The Islamic Revival Party (IRP) is the only officially recognised Islamic party in Central Asia. Its legality is enshrined in the civil war peace accord and, under the direction of its current leader, Muhiddin Kabiri, pursues a moderate, liberal policy, envisaging a secular state guided by Muslim principles. Its decision not to pursue a more radical Islamic agenda or to be overly critical of the government has led to some increase in support for the banned Islamic movement, Hizb-ut-Tahrir, which pursues a more radical, pan-Islamic agenda.

As a result of the civil war peace accord, the ruling PDP agreed to share 30% of all governmental positions with United Opposition candidates. This was never fully implemented and the government has steadily reduced the number of positions awarded to non PDP members. This has not, however, resulted in open political discontent. At the same time, President Rahmon has continued to consolidate his hold on power by neutralising former warlords and potential rivals from both sides of the civil war divide. Iskandarov, the Head of the Democratic Party, was seized in dubious circumstances in Moscow in 2005, tried and convicted to 25 years in prison in for corruption and other offences. The former Head of the Presidential Guard, General Mirzoyev, was sentenced to life imprisonment in August 2006 for organising a coup d'etat. One of the legacies of the civil war is the fear among Tajiks that "opposition" politics are likely to be divisive and dangerous to national stability and peace. For the time being, this, together with the absence of any strong opposition figures or parties, mitigates against the likelihood of a "coloured" revolution in .

While a fa�ade of democracy is in place, in practice power is concentrated in the hands of the President. Recent election victories and government re-shuffles have not resulted in any change of policies or invigorated the political landscape. Parliament is weak and acts as little more than a rubber stamp for Presidential decrees. There are no genuine debates and deputies are seen more as sources of patronage than as representatives of their constituents' interests. Nevertheless, President Rahmon retains genuine popularity as the man seen as being responsible for bringing peace to the country and managing to retain its stability.

Challenges to stability

remains beset, however, by social and economic problems that, if left unsolved, could lead in the longer term to discontent being openly expressed. Much of the country's infrastructure (transport, roads, utilities) is now worse than in Soviet times while access to services such as health and education is less equitable than in the past, and the quality has declined as many of the country's educated and technical professionals left during the civil war. The increasing concentration of power in the hands of a small coterie of officials from the President's home area of Dangara is alienating those from other parts of the country, while preventing the selection of the best people for the job. Despite the creation of an anti-corruption committee, the government have so far failed seriously to address the issue (not least as corrupt practices pervade so far and high within Tajik society). Corruption at all levels is a major impediment to progress and inequalities of wealth are now becoming obvious in the capital. One of the most worrying aspects of the visible new wealth is that only a small proportion is likely to be the result of legitimate business; much is likely to derive from corrupt practices or as a result of 's role as a transit country for Afghan heroin. However, despite the growing presence of drug traffickers, other criminal activity does not appear to have increased and the country remains relatively safe.

ECONOMY

Basic Economic Facts (latest available figures: 2005)

GDP: US$2.3bn (2004)
Annual GDP Growth:6.7% (2004)
Inflation: 7.8% (2004.)
Major Industries: Nonferrous metalurgy, mining, hydro-power, textiles, cotton, fruit.
Major trading partners: , , , EU
Foreign direct investment: US$272 million (2004 - includes a debt for equity swap with worth $242 million)
Debt: US$ 866 million (2004)

Tajikistan has the lowest per capita GDP ($287) in 2004) among the 15 former Soviet republics, on a par with much of sub-Saharan Africa as the.economy has suffered badly with the loss of its traditional markets after the collapse of the Soviet Union, compounded by the destructive effect of the civil war. The poor state of the roads, limited external transportation links and other infrastructure weaknesses hinders development. The rationing of electricity in winter - when most of the country outside the capital receives no more than four hours of electricity a day - has serious implications for the ability of industry or IT to operate. Most of the manufacturing plants from Soviet times have been abandoned, but have not been replaced by new production. Around 75% of exports derive from a single large aluminium plant, TALCO. Cotton is the most important crop (although this involves some child labour during the harvest period), accounting for about 9% of exports. Other exports include fruits, vegetables and nuts.

Around 57% of the population is estimated to live below the official poverty line as defined by the World Bank's indicator of living on less than $2.15 a day. The lack of job opportunities drives up to a million Tajiks to seek work abroad as migrant labourers and their remittances form a major part of the Tajik economy. Although now much reduced, is still dependent on international humanitarian assistance for some of its basic subsistence needs. International donors continue to work with the Tajik Government to address the serious development issues with the aim of fulfilling the National Development Strategy and Poverty Reduction Strategy for 2007-09 and reaching the Millennium Development Goals by 2015. The Development Forum which took place in Dushanbe in June 2007 concluded that priority should be given to the development of the health and education sectors, to removing constraints on the development of the SME sector and foreign investment, to develop the energy sector, to implement reforms in the cotton sector, particularly with regard to the cotton debt issue, to encourage full participation by women and to put in place a public external debt strategy.

Despite the problems, economic growth has averaged around 9% since the end of the civil war and inflation has remained within single figures. has considerable economic potential and the government has prioritised infrastructure development, particularly hydro-power and road-building as key to the country's development. Although there appear to be problems surrounding the Russian company Rusal's involvement in the construction of a major hydro-power plant at Roghun, other investors, notably and are becoming increasingly involved in construction projects. There is some, limited, potential for oil and gas exploitation, while the mountains contain valuable mineral resources including gold, silver, uranium, antimony and tungsten. Western investors, however, find a difficult country in which to work given the high levels of corruption, complex and not entirely transparent bureaucracy, and limited infrastructure. There are no major Western companies currently working in .

INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

continues to regard as its primary partner for both economic and security co-operation, although the relationship appears to be under some strain at present, largely due to the problems over Rusal's involvement in the Roghun hydro-power project. Under the terms of agreements signed in October 2004, wrote off around $250 million of bilateral debt in return for substantial investment in the Tajik hydro-electric and aluminium industries and continues to maintain its largest permanent overseas military base in .

Tajik-Uzbek relations are uncomfortable as the Uzbek Government regards (largely erroneously) as a haven for Islamic fundamentalists and consequently inhibits travel and economic co-operation between the two countries and regularly interrupts gas supplies to . Relations with and are generally good, although there are resource-related cross-border tensions at local level in the Ferghana Valley and occasional minor armed incidents on the border, the last being in May 2006.

supported the US-led coalition that overthrew the Taliban regime in , and enjoys good relations with Karzai's government. Given the long shared border with , remains a strategically important country in the international community's fight against drug trafficking. shares a common linguistic and cultural heritage with (and ) and President Rahmon hopes to develop economic and trading links with , not least as a means of providing with a new southern export route with links to the sea at Karachi.

has deepened its economic and political links with both and in the last year. Both countries are providing large amounts of untied aid or soft loans for construction projects. is a keen member of the various regional groupings - Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, Commonwealth of Independent States and Eurasian Economic Community. However President Rahmon aims to pursue a balanced foreign policy and also maintains good relations with the EU and US, both of whom are major donors to development and security programmes in . The EU has signed a Partnership and Cooperation Agreement with , although not all Member States have yet ratified the document. The German Presidency of the EU prioritised relations with Central Asia and has drafted an EU Central Asia strategy

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